Individual-based modeling, population dynamics, and fisheries recruitment success
Prediction of recruitment success is a critical problem in fisheries research. From a theoretical perspective, the ability to predict the number and characteristics of reproducing survivors underlies the field of quantitative population dynamics. Form a practical perspective, rationale and efficient management of fisheries resources requires the ability to accurately forecast the effects of disturbances, both natural and anthropogenic in origin, on fish populations. The objective of this paper is to advocate individual- based modelling as an alternative to the more traditional approaches for predicting recruitment success. First, some reasons for the limited success to date in making long-term predictions of fisheries recruitment are summarized. The importance of information on individuals, rather than on the average individual, is then illustrated as the fallacy of the average'' using two sets of experimental data. The general ideas behind individual-based modelling, and four examples of individual-based models involving fish, are then briefly described. Finally, we make some concluding remarks. Two caveats are necessary. This paper is a summary of a workshop presentation; we therefore take many liberties and make gross generalizations throughout the paper. Also, although not explicitly stated, our discussion is based more on estuarine and marine, than on freshwater, fishes. 8 refs., 6 figs.
- Research Organization:
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- EPRI
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC05-84OR21400
- OSTI ID:
- 7017205
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-9002130-1; ON: DE90013826; CNN: RP2932--2
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: Fisheries-oceanography coordinated investigation (FOCI) workshop on fisheries recruitment modelling, Seattle, WA (USA), 26-27 Feb 1990
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
FISHES
POPULATION DYNAMICS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
ANIMAL GROWTH
AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS
DECISION MAKING
DISTURBANCES
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
ESTUARIES
FISHERIES
LIFE CYCLE
MANAGEMENT
MIGRATION
MORTALITY
SURVIVAL CURVES
ANIMALS
AQUATIC ORGANISMS
ECOSYSTEMS
GROWTH
SURFACE WATERS
VERTEBRATES
540320* - Environment
Aquatic- Chemicals Monitoring & Transport- (1990-)