Foreign capital and the impact of exchange rate adjustments in oil-exporting developing countries with an application to Indonesia
The efficacy of exchange rate adjustments as an instrument of economic policy in developing countries has long been the subject of considerable controversy. Theoretical treatments of currency devaluation generally conclude that it improves the trade balance and stimulates economic activity. However, this traditional view has been challenged in recent years on the grounds that trade flows, including factor imports, are relatively insensitive to price and exchange rate changes, especially in developing countries. This study analyzes the effects of exchange rate changes in oil exporting developing countries which host foreign capital by using a modified model of the Krugman-Taylor (l978) and Barbone-Batiz (1987) types. It is shown that the impact of devaluation on GNP is influenced by (a) the initial state of the current account balance, (b) the elasticity of demand for non-oil exports, (c) the elasticity of demand for final good imports, (d) the foreign ownership effects, and (e) the impact of devaluation on the government revenues. Devaluation can lead to an increase in national output, but only if the elasticity effects in the non-oil export sector and in the final good imports are large enough to dominate the government revenue effect, the foreign-ownership effect in the oil sector and the impact of any initial current account deficit. The model was applied to the economy of Indonesia, an oil exporting developing country. The net effect of devaluation on national output is known to be contradictory following devaluation, thus supporting the structuralist view that devaluation has negative real effects in this country, at least in the short run. It was also found that the estimated price elasticities of non-oil imports and exports are low in the short-run. Devaluation would lead to improvement in the non-oil trade account in the long run after devaluation.
- Research Organization:
- Colorado Univ., Boulder, CO (USA)
- OSTI ID:
- 6840058
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: Thesis (Ph. D.)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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