Forecasting a state-specific demand for highway fuels: the case for Hawaii
An econometric model is developed to predict the demand for highway fuels in Hawaii over the next 20 years. The stock of motor vehicles is separated into six classes, and the demand for new vehicles is estimated using seemingly unrelated regression. Average fuel efficiency for the entire fleet stock, gasoline price, per capita income, and per capita stock are used to estimate per capita vehicle-miles traveled. Highway fuel consumption is then calculated as the quotient of vehicle-miles traveled and average fleet fuel efficiency. The model performs well within and outside the historical sample period. A historical simulation is performed which shows what might have happened had gasoline prices not skyrocketed in the 1970s. Predictions of highway fuel consumption through the year 2000 under three different gasoline price scenarios are then made. 29 references, 3 figures, 9 tables.
- Research Organization:
- Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu
- OSTI ID:
- 6652854
- Journal Information:
- Energy Syst. Policy; (United States), Vol. 10:2
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
AUTOMOTIVE FUELS
DEMAND FACTORS
FUEL CONSUMPTION
ECONOMIC ELASTICITY
FORECASTING
HAWAII
ECONOMETRICS
FUEL ECONOMY
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
VEHICLES
ECONOMICS
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
FEDERAL REGION IX
FUELS
MATHEMATICS
NORTH AMERICA
STATISTICS
USA
320203* - Energy Conservation
Consumption
& Utilization- Transportation- Land & Roadway
292000 - Energy Planning & Policy- Supply
Demand & Forecasting