Experts in uncertainty: Opinion and subjective probability in science
Roger Cooke examines in this treatise the growing phenomena of the use of expert opinion and expert systems in current technological problem-solving. His particular focus is the use of expert opinion to resolve problems in the presence of uncertainty. The first section of the book surveys a range of applications of expert opinion: traditional risk analysis, aerospace, artificial intelligence, and policy analysis. A number of interesting concepts are discussed in these chapters: probabilistic thinking, heuristics and biases of expert knowledge, building rational consensus, etc. Part 2 then focuses on the role of subjective probability in representing uncertainty. Most helpful in this section are discussions of rational preference, normative decision theory, and Di Finetti's concepts of learning from experience - all presented in such a way as to facilitate the development of expert subjective probability assessment models. Also included in this section are two examples of these approaches at work: one on an engineering problem, the other on a management problem. Part 3 then draws from materials discussed in parts 1 and 2 to present three models of expert probability assessment: a classical model, a Bayesian model, and a psychological scaling model. The detailed case studies provided with these models are especially helpful in understanding the application of Cooke's concepts. Given the growing interest in probability assessment and uncertainty analysis in environmental risk assessment, Cooke's material will be quite helpful to risk assessors struggling to identify the appropriate analytical tools.
- OSTI ID:
- 6549338
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: From review by Robin K. White, Oak Ridge National Lab., TN, in Risk Analysis, Vol. 13, No. 2 (April 1993)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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