Economic impacts of petroleum shortages and the implications for the freight-transportation industry
The major economic impacts that result from petroleum-supply interruptions and the subsequent effects on the demand for freight transportation are described. This analysis involved a simulation of the effects of three different fuel-supply shortfalls on intercity freight transportation. The research included the use of three economic and transportation models to simulate the economic impacts of oil shortfalls and the resulting change in freight-transportation demand as expressed in tons shipped, ton-miles of travel, and fuel use. Economic effects are discussed for a base case and then for a 7%, 14%, and 23% petroleum shortfall. The demand for freight transportation is determined by the output of various commodity sectors which generate traffic for the truck, rail, water, air, and pipeline modes. The effects of various diesel-fuel-price levels are also examined. The analysis suggests that at low, or controlled, fuel prices the more significant impacts for freight movements will be the reduction in output in the bulk-commodity sectors, which are dominated by the waterway and rail modes. At high fuel prices (i.e., equilibrium levels), shipping is significantly decreased in all commodity sectors, but mode shifts are likely to occur from truck to rail, and even from rail to water in some corridors.
- Research Organization:
- Argonne National Lab., IL (USA)
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-31-109-ENG-38
- OSTI ID:
- 6484790
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-820128-5; ON: DE83007604
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: 61. annual meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC, USA, 18 Jan 1982; Other Information: Portions are illegible in microfiche products
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
Freight transportation petroleum conservation opportunities - viability evaluation. Final report, April 1977-1978
Energy contingency planning for freight transportation
Related Subjects
29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
ENERGY SHORTAGES
ECONOMIC IMPACT
PETROLEUM
TRANSPORTATION SECTOR
CARGO
DIESEL FUELS
FORECASTING
FUEL CONSUMPTION
GASOLINE
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
PRICES
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY SOURCES
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
LIQUID FUELS
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
SHORTAGES
320200* - Energy Conservation
Consumption
& Utilization- Transportation
294002 - Energy Planning & Policy- Petroleum
292000 - Energy Planning & Policy- Supply
Demand & Forecasting