Analysis of uncertainties in CRAC2 calculations: wet deposition and plume rise
We have studied the sensitivity of results from the CRAC2 computer code, which predicts health impacts from a reactor-accident scenario, to uncertainties in selected meteorological models and parameters. The sources of uncertainty examined include the models for plume rise and wet deposition and the meteorological bin-sampling procedure. An alternative plume-rise model usually had little effect on predicted health impacts. In an alternative wet-deposition model, the scavenging rate depends only on storm type, rather than on rainfall rate and atmospheric stability class as in the CRAC2 model. Use of the alternative wet-deposition model in meteorological bin-sampling runs decreased predicted mean early injuries by as much as a factor of 2 to 3 and, for large release heights and sensible heat rates, decreased mean early fatalities by nearly an order of magnitude. The bin-sampling procedure in CRAC2 was expanded by dividing each rain bin into four bins that depend on rainfall rate. Use of the modified bin structure in conjunction with the CRAC2 wet-deposition model changed all predicted health impacts by less than a factor of 2. 9 references.
- Research Organization:
- Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Oak Ridge, TN (USA). Atmospheric Turbulence and Diffusion Lab.
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC05-84OR21400
- OSTI ID:
- 6217193
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-8409169-3; ON: DE85005361
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: Society for Risk Analysis annual meeting, Knoxville, TN, USA, 30 Sep 1984
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Sensitivity and uncertainty studies of the CRAC2 computer code
Sensitivity and uncertainty studies of the CRAC2 computer code
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22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS
PLUMES
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
REACTOR ACCIDENTS
RADIATION HAZARDS
COMPARATIVE EVALUATIONS
COMPUTER CODES
FALLOUT
FORECASTING
METEOROLOGY
NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS
PROBABILITY
RADIATION DOSES
RADIOACTIVE AEROSOLS
RADIOACTIVE CLOUDS
STORMS
WASHOUT
ACCIDENTS
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CLOUDS
COLLOIDS
DISASTERS
DISPERSIONS
DOSES
HAZARDS
HEALTH HAZARDS
NUCLEAR FACILITIES
POWER PLANTS
PRECIPITATION SCAVENGING
SEPARATION PROCESSES
SOLS
THERMAL POWER PLANTS
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