SDI performance and START constraints: Modeling Phase-1 defense engagements

Conference · Wed Mar 20 00:00:00 EST 1991

OSTI ID:5806097

Cunningham, C

My interest has been the performance of near-term Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) systems rather than the kinds of questions discussed at this Workshop (e.g., implications of US force structure). It is clear, though, that the two issues are closely related. Arms control along with treaties that impact the force structure of the Soviet Union will greatly affect the performance of SDI systems. Similarly, the US intention to pursue SDI will be a driver in arms control negotiations, as well it should be. Indeed, the implications of SDI for Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START)-constrained Soviet forces are the focus of my discussion. To put this in some context, I will begin with the premises underlying my results: the United States and the Soviet Union reach an arms control agreement limiting strategic forces below current levels. The United States decides to pursue defense deployments to limit damage to the US and, eventually, to provide robust protection against ballistic missile attack. The Soviet Union responds by improving its forces within the numerical bounds of the treaty. My basic calculations are: Under START and in the absence of defenses, the offenses has sufficient weapons to attack 10,000 targets with strong value contrast. START constraints are severely limiting against an adaptive preferential defense, even with adaptive targeting. The adaptive preferential defense may contain a random-subtractive SBI tier. PBV redesign alone is insufficient to stress the SBI. Offload penalties to defeat endoatmospheric interceptors appear significant. Despite increased flexibility to modernize, a small attacking force is vulnerable to a small defense. 6 figs., 2 tabs.

• Research Organization: Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (USA)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE; USDOE, Washington, DC (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-48
• OSTI ID: 5806097
• Report Number(s): UCRL-JC-106498; CTS-19-90; CONF-9010247-4; ON: DE91013305
• Resource Relation: Conference: The role of nuclear weapons in the year 2000, San Ramon, CA (USA), 22-24 Oct 1990
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEFENSE
98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL PROTECTION
BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE
EVALUATION
ARMS CONTROL
MILITARY STRATEGY
NATIONAL DEFENSE
NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY
NUCLEAR WEAPONS
TREATIES
WEAPONS
450500* - Military Technology
Weaponry
& National Defense- Strategic Defense Initiative- (1990-)
350101 - Arms Control- Policy
Negotiations
& Legislation- Treaties- (1987-)