Forecasting in-plant electricity generation in the industrial sector, 1980 to 2000. Final report

Technical Report · Tue Dec 01 00:00:00 EST 1981

OSTI ID:5685091

Manuel, Jr, E H; Duff, M C; Cullen, D E; Nanda, P

A model was developed for forecasting the use of purchased and self-generated electricity in the industrial sector. The model provides forecasts for each of four industries: SIC 26 (paper), SIC 28 (chemicals), SIC 29 (petroleum refining), and SIC 33 (primary metals), and a total for all manufacturing. Forecasts are made for each of the nine Census regions and cover the period 1980 to 2000. The model combines econometric and engineering-based mathematical programming models. The econometric models provide the basic electricity demand forecasts, and are in turn driven by the Wharton Annual Model, a large macroeconometric model of the economy. The mathematical programming model is used to analyze the economics of self-generation at the individual manufacturing plant level. It takes into account not only process energy demands, energy conversion efficiencies, and energy prices, but also the discrete nature of equipment sizes, and the details of electric utility tariffs.

• Research Organization: Mathtech, Inc., Princeton, NJ (USA)
• OSTI ID: 5685091
• Report Number(s): EPRI-EA-2163; ON: DE82902214
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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29 ENERGY PLANNING
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INDUSTRY
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