Evaluation of long-term RD and D programs in the presence of market uncertainties

Journal Article · Fri Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 1982 · Energy Syst. Policy; (United States)

OSTI ID:5560693

Hazelrigg, Jr, G A

Long-term research, development, and demonstration (RD and D) programs such as fusion research can span several decades, progressing through a number of discrete RD and D phases. Pursuit of a technology such as fusion does not mean commitment to the entire RD and D program, but only to the next phase of RD and D. The evaluation of a long-term RD and D program must account for the decision process to continue, modify, or discontinue the program upon completion of each RD and D phase, the technological uncertainties inherent in a long-term RD and D program, and the uncertainty inherent in the future marketplace for the technology if and when it becomes available. Presented here is a methodology that does this. An application of the methodology to fusion research is included. The example application shows that the perceived economic value of fusion research is strongly dependent on market uncertainty, with increasing market uncertainty yielding greatly increased perceived value to the research effort. 7 references, 8 figures, 2 tables.

• Research Organization: ECON, Inc., Princeton, NJ
• DOE Contract Number: AC02-77ET52017; EX-77-R-05-5474
• OSTI ID: 5560693
• Journal Information: Energy Syst. Policy; (United States), Vol. 6:2
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY
DEMONSTRATION PROGRAMS
TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT
RESEARCH PROGRAMS
THERMONUCLEAR REACTIONS
EVALUATION
MARKET
NUCLEAR REACTIONS
NUCLEOSYNTHESIS
290500* - Energy Planning & Policy- Research
Development
Demonstration
& Commercialization
700000 - Fusion Energy