Modeling the number of bids received for outer continental shelf leases by Poisson-type models
Since 1954, the U.S. federal government has held hydrocarbon lease sales for areas on the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS). The U.S. DOE is charged with developing lease sale policies designed to increase competition on the offered tracts. Increased competition has been assumed synonymous with increased number of bids (NOB). To study the influence of alternative bidding systems on the number of bids received, a mixed Poisson-type model has previously been employed. The authors show why this model is not statistically supportable. A truncated model is proposed and is shown to be statistically justified for the number of solo bids over all sales and marginally supported for the number of joint bids on sales before the joint-bidding ban.
- Research Organization:
- Los Alamos Natl. Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM
- OSTI ID:
- 5324544
- Journal Information:
- J. Pet. Technol.; (United States), Vol. 35:8
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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03 NATURAL GAS
CONTINENTAL SHELF
NATURAL GAS DEPOSITS
PETROLEUM DEPOSITS
LEASING
BIDS
COMPETITION
EXPLORATION
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
LEASES
POISSON EQUATION
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STATISTICAL MODELS
US DOE
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CONTINENTAL MARGIN
DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS
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GEOLOGIC DEPOSITS
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MINERAL RESOURCES
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