Statistical validation of system models
- Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)
- Texas Univ., El Paso, TX (United States)
- Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)
It is common practice in system analysis to develop mathematical models for system behavior. Frequently, the actual system being modeled is also available for testing and observation, and sometimes the test data are used to help identify the parameters of the mathematical model. However, no general-purpose technique exists for formally, statistically judging the quality of a model. This paper suggests a formal statistical procedure for the validation of mathematical models of systems when data taken during operation of the system are available. The statistical validation procedure is based on the bootstrap, and it seeks to build a framework where a statistical test of hypothesis can be run to determine whether or not a mathematical model is an acceptable model of a system with regard to user-specified measures of system behavior. The approach to model validation developed in this study uses experimental data to estimate the marginal and joint confidence intervals of statistics of interest of the system. These same measures of behavior are estimated for the mathematical model. The statistics of interest from the mathematical model are located relative to the confidence intervals for the statistics obtained from the experimental data. These relative locations are used to judge the accuracy of the mathematical model. An extension of the technique is also suggested, wherein randomness may be included in the mathematical model through the introduction of random variable and random process terms. These terms cause random system behavior that can be compared to the randomness in the bootstrap evaluation of experimental system behavior. In this framework, the stochastic mathematical model can be evaluated. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the application of the technique.
- Research Organization:
- Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Financial Management and Controller, Washington, DC (United States); Department of the Air Force, Washington, DC (United States); Texas Univ., Austin, TX (United States)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC04-94AL85000
- OSTI ID:
- 434377
- Report Number(s):
- SAND-96-1862C; CONF-970112-3; ON: DE96014024
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: 30. annual Hawaii international conference on system sciences, Wailea, HI (United States), 7-10 Jan 1997; Other Information: PBD: [1997]
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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