Empirical Dynamic Modeling Reveals Complexity of Methane Fluxes in a Temperate Salt Marsh

Hill, Andrew C.; Schäfer, Karina V. R.; Forbrich, Inke; Vargas, Rodrigo

doi:10.1029/2023JG007630

Title: Empirical Dynamic Modeling Reveals Complexity of Methane Fluxes in a Temperate Salt Marsh

Journal Article · Tue Feb 20 00:00:00 EST 2024 · Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JG007630· OSTI ID:2309806

^[1]; Schäfer, Karina V. R. ^[2];

^[3];

^[4]

Department of Plant &, Soil Sciences University of Delaware Newark DE USA, Northern Research Station United States Forest Service Grand Rapids MN USA
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences Rutgers University Newark NJ USA
Marine Biological Laboratory The Ecosystems Center Woods Hole MA USA, Department of Environmental Sciences University of Toledo Toledo OH USA
Department of Plant &, Soil Sciences University of Delaware Newark DE USA

Abstract Methane dynamics within salt marshes are complex because vegetation types, temperature, oscillating water levels, and changes in salinity and redox conditions influence CH ₄ production, consumption, oxidation, and emissions. These non‐linear and complex interactions among variables affect the traditionally expected functional relationships and present challenges for interpreting and developing process‐based models. We employed empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) and convergent cross mapping (CCM) as a novel approach for characterizing seasonal/multiday and diurnal CH ₄ dynamics by inferring causal variables, lags, and interconnections among multiple biophysical variables within a temperate salt marsh using 5 years of eddy covariance data. EDM/CCM is a nonparametric approach capable of quantifying the coupling between variables while determining time scales where variable interactions are the most relevant. We found that gross primary productivity, tidal creek dissolved oxygen, and temperature were important for seasonal/multiday dynamics (rho = 0.73–0.80), while water level was most important for diurnal dynamics during both the growing and dormancy phenoperiods (rho = 0.72 and 0.56, respectively). Lags for the top‐ranked variables (i.e., gross primary productivity, dissolved oxygen, temperature, water level) occurred between 1 and 5 weeks at the seasonal scale and 1–24 hr at the diurnal scale. The EDM had high prediction capabilities for intra‐/inter‐seasonal patterns and annual CH ₄ sums but had limitations in representing large, infrequent fluxes. Results highlight the importance of non‐linearity, drivers, lag times, and interconnections among multiple biophysical variables that regulate CH ₄ fluxes in tidal wetlands. This research introduces a novel approach to examining CH ₄ fluxes, which will aid in evaluating current paradigms in wetlands and other ecosystems.

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Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

OSTI ID:: 2309806

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 2317692

Journal Information:: Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences, Journal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences Vol. 129 Journal Issue: 2; ISSN 2169-8953

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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