Simulation and Optimization of Large Scale Subsurface Environmental Impacts; Investigations, Remedial Design and Long Term Monitoring
- PE Science Applications International Cooperation, Aiken, SC (United States)
The global impact to human health and the environment from large scale chemical / radionuclide releases is well documented. Examples are the wide spread release of radionuclides from the Chernobyl nuclear reactors, the mobilization of arsenic in Bangladesh, the formation of Environmental Protection Agencies in the United States, Canada and Europe, and the like. The fiscal costs of addressing and remediating these issues on a global scale are astronomical, but then so are the fiscal and human health costs of ignoring them. An integrated methodology for optimizing the response(s) to these issues is needed. This work addresses development of optimal policy design for large scale, complex, environmental issues. It discusses the development, capabilities, and application of a hybrid system of algorithms that optimizes the environmental response. It is important to note that 'optimization' does not singularly refer to cost minimization, but to the effective and efficient balance of cost, performance, risk, management, and societal priorities along with uncertainty analysis. This tool integrates all of these elements into a single decision framework. It provides a consistent approach to designing optimal solutions that are tractable, traceable, and defensible. The system is modular and scalable. It can be applied either as individual components or in total. By developing the approach in a complex systems framework, a solution methodology represents a significant improvement over the non-optimal 'trial and error' approach to environmental response(s). Subsurface environmental processes are represented by linear and non-linear, elliptic and parabolic equations. The state equations solved using numerical methods include multi-phase flow (water, soil gas, NAPL), and multicomponent transport (radionuclides, heavy metals, volatile organics, explosives, etc.). Genetic programming is used to generate the simulators either when simulation models do not exist, or to extend the accuracy of them. The uncertainty and sparse nature of information in earth science simulations necessitate stochastic representations. For discussion purposes, the solution to these site-wide challenges is divided into three sub-components; plume finding, long term monitoring, and site-wide remediation. Plume finding is the optimal estimation of the plume fringe(s) at a specified time. It is optimized by fusing geo-stochastic flow and transport simulations with the information content of data using a Kalman filter. The result is an optimal monitoring sensor network; the decision variable is location(s) of sensor in three dimensions. Long term monitoring extends this approach concept, and integrates the spatial-time correlations to optimize the decision variables of where to sample and when to sample over the project life cycle. Optimization of location and timing of samples to meet the desired accuracy of temporal plume movement is accomplished using enumeration or genetic algorithms. The remediation optimization solves the multi-component, multiphase system of equations and incorporates constraints on life-cycle costs, maximum annual costs, maximum allowable annual discharge (for assessing the monitored natural attenuation solution) and constraints on where remedial system component(s) can be located, including management overrides to force certain solutions to be chosen are incorporated for solution design. It uses a suite of optimization techniques, including the outer approximation method, Lipchitz global optimization, genetic algorithms, and the like. The automated optimal remedial design algorithm requires a stable simulator be available for the simulated process. This is commonly the case for all above specifications sans true three-dimensional multiphase flow. Much work is currently being conducted in the industry to develop stable 3D, three-phase simulators. If needed, an interim heuristic algorithm is available to get close to optimal for these conditions. This system process provides the full capability to optimize multi-source, multiphase, and multicomponent sites. The results of applying just components of these algorithms have produced predicted savings of as much as $90,000,000(US), when compared to alternative solutions. Investment in a pilot program to test the model saved 100% of the $20,000,000 predicted for the smaller test implementation. This was done without loss of effectiveness, and received an award from the Vice President - and now Nobel peace prize winner - Al Gore of the United States. (authors)
- Research Organization:
- WM Symposia, 1628 E. Southern Avenue, Suite 9 - 332, Tempe, AZ 85282 (United States)
- OSTI ID:
- 21326124
- Report Number(s):
- INIS-US-10-WM-08330; TRN: US10V0544067489
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: WM'08: Waste Management Symposium 2008 - HLW, TRU, LLW/ILW, Mixed, Hazardous Wastes and Environmental Management - Phoenix Rising: Moving Forward in Waste Management, Phoenix, AZ (United States), 24-28 Feb 2008; Other Information: Country of input: France; 42 refs
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE WASTES, AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTES FROM NUCLEAR FACILITIES
97 MATHEMATICAL METHODS AND COMPUTING
ALGORITHMS
ENVIRONMENT
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
LIFE CYCLE
LIFE-CYCLE COST
MINIMIZATION
MONITORING
MULTIPHASE FLOW
PLUMES
PUBLIC HEALTH
RADIOACTIVE WASTE MANAGEMENT
RADIOACTIVE WASTES
RADIONUCLIDE MIGRATION
REMEDIAL ACTION
SIMULATION
US EPA