Net-zero CO₂ by 2050 scenarios for the United States in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study

Journal Article · Mon Apr 10 00:00:00 EDT 2023 · Energy and Climate Change

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100104· OSTI ID:1971899

Browning, Morgan  ^[1]; McFarland, James ^[1]; Bistline, John ^[2]; Boyd, Gale ^[3]; Muratori, Matteo  ^[4]; Binsted, Matthew T. ^[5]; Harris, Chioke  ^[4]; Mai, Trieu  ^[4]; Blanford, Geoff ^[2]; Edmonds, James A.  ^[5]; Fawcett, Allen A. ^[1]; Kaplan, Ozge ^[1]; Weyant, John ^[6]

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1. US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States)
2. Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Palo Alto, CA (United States)
3. Duke University, Durham, NC (United States)
4. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
5. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
6. Stanford Univeristy, CA (United States)

The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 37 study on deep decarbonization and high electrification analyzed a set of scenarios that achieve economy-wide net-zero carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in North America by mid-century, exploring the implications of different technology evolutions, policies, and behavioral assumptions affecting energy supply and demand. Here, for this paper, 16 modeling teams reported resulting emissions projections, energy system evolution, and economic activity. This paper provides an overview of the study, documents the scenario design, provides a roadmap for complementary forthcoming papers from this study, and offers an initial summary and comparison of results for net-zero CO₂ by 2050 scenarios in the United States. We compare various outcomes across models and scenarios, such as emissions, energy use, fuel mix evolution, and technology adoption. Despite disparate model structure and sources for input assumptions, there is broad agreement in energy system trends across models towards deep decarbonization of the electricity sector coupled with increased end-use electrification of buildings, transportation, and to a lesser extent industry. All models deploy negative emissions technologies (e.g., direct air capture and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) in addition to land sinks to achieve net-zero CO₂ emissions. Important differences emerged in the results, showing divergent pathways among end-use sectors with deep electrification and grid decarbonization as necessary but not sufficient conditions to achieve net zero. These differences will be explored in the papers complementing this study to inform efforts to reach net-zero emissions and future research needs.

• Research Organization: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Energy Efficiency Office. Building Technologies Office; USEPA; USDOE Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM); ENERGY STAR
• Grant/Contract Number: AC36-08GO28308; 68HE0H18A0003; AC05-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 1971899
• Alternate ID(s): OSTI ID: 1972665
• Report Number(s): NREL/JA-6A40-84613; PNNL-SA-183751; MainId:85386; UUID:0268cc3d-c0c4-41e9-af3a-a7ca227f4bc8; MainAdminID:69372
• Journal Information: Energy and Climate Change, Vol. 4; ISSN 2666-2787
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
climate change
deep decarbonization
electrification
energy systems
model comparison
GCAM
EMF37
Net Zero