Time domain probabilistic seismic risk analysis using ground motion prediction equations of Fourier amplitude spectra

Wang, Hexiang; Wang, Fangbo; Yang, Han; Feng, Yuan; Jeremic, Boris

doi:10.1016/j.soildyn.2022.107218

Title: Time domain probabilistic seismic risk analysis using ground motion prediction equations of Fourier amplitude spectra

Journal Article · Fri Mar 25 00:00:00 EDT 2022 · Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2022.107218· OSTI ID:1960401

^[1]; Wang, Fangbo ^[2]; Yang, Han ^[1]; Feng, Yuan ^[1];

^[3]

Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)
Tianjin Univ. (China)
Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Modeling of Fourier amplitude spectra (FAS) of seismic motions has gained much attention in engineering seismology. In the past few years, several ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and inter-frequency correlation structure of FAS have been established. Due to many preferable characteristics of FAS, probabilistic seismic hazard/risk analysis is rapidly changing from ergodic, spectrum acceleration Sa(T₀)-based approach to non-ergodic, site-specific, FAS-based approach. This paper presents time domain intrusive framework for probabilistic seismic risk analysis using GMPE of FAS. Herein, methodology for time domain stochastic ground motion modeling based on GMPEs of FAS is presented in some detail. The simulated uncertain motions are modeled as a random process and represented by polynomial chaos Karhunen-Loève expansion. The random process excitations are further propagated into the uncertain structural system using Galerkin stochastic finite element method (SFEM). Probabilistic evolution of structural response is solved, and such solution is used to develop seismic risk for any damage state. The presented framework is illustrated through seismic risk analysis of a four-story building subjected to possible earthquakes from two strike slip faults. The influences of the epistemic uncertainties in source stress drop Δσ and site attenuation κ0 on seismic risk are investigated. The need for non-ergodic seismic risk analysis with source-specific and site specific characterizations is emphasized.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 1960401

Journal Information:: Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, Vol. 157; ISSN 0267-7261

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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