Pervasive alterations to snow-dominated ecosystem functions under climate change

Wieder, William R.; Kennedy, Daniel; Lehner, Flavio; Musselman, Keith N.; Rodgers, Keith B.; Rosenbloom, Nan; Simpson, Isla R.; Yamaguchi, Ryohei

doi:10.1073/pnas.2202393119

Title: Pervasive alterations to snow-dominated ecosystem functions under climate change

Journal Article · Mon Jul 18 00:00:00 EDT 2022 · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2202393119· OSTI ID:1876540

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Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853
Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309
Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan 46241, South Korea, Pusan National University, Busan 46241, South Korea

Climate change projections consistently demonstrate that warming temperatures and dwindling seasonal snowpack will elicit cascading effects on ecosystem function and water resource availability. Despite this consensus, little is known about potential changes in the variability of ecohydrological conditions, which is also required to inform climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Considering potential changes in ecohydrological variability is critical to evaluating the emergence of trends, assessing the likelihood of extreme events such as floods and droughts, and identifying when tipping points may be reached that fundamentally alter ecohydrological function. Using a single-model Large Ensemble with sophisticated terrestrial ecosystem representation, we characterize projected changes in the mean state and variability of ecohydrological processes in historically snow-dominated regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Widespread snowpack reductions, earlier snowmelt timing, longer growing seasons, drier soils, and increased fire risk are projected for this century under a high-emissions scenario. In addition to these changes in the mean state, increased variability in winter snowmelt will increase growing-season water deficits and increase the stochasticity of runoff. Thus, with warming, declining snowpack loses its dependable buffering capacity so that runoff quantity and timing more closely reflect the episodic characteristics of precipitation. This results in a declining predictability of annual runoff from maximum snow water equivalent, which has critical implications for ecosystem stress and water resource management. Our results suggest that there is a strong likelihood of pervasive alterations to ecohydrological function that may be expected with climate change.

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Research Organization:: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Science Foundation (NSF); National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR); Institute for Basic Science (IBS); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Grant/Contract Number:: 1947282; SC0022070; 1852977; 2031238; 2120804; 1637686; IBS-R028-D1; 4310349

OSTI ID:: 1876540

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1979172

Journal Information:: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Journal Name: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Vol. 119 Journal Issue: 30; ISSN 0027-8424

Publisher:: Proceedings of the National Academy of SciencesCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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