Comparing different generations of idealized solar geoengineering simulations in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

Kravitz, Ben; MacMartin, Douglas G.; Visioni, Daniele; Boucher, Olivier; Cole, Jason N. S.; Haywood, Jim; Jones, Andy; Lurton, Thibaut; Nabat, Pierre; Niemeier, Ulrike; Robock, Alan; Séférian, Roland; Tilmes, Simone

doi:10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021

Title: Comparing different generations of idealized solar geoengineering simulations in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

Journal Article · Fri Mar 19 00:00:00 EDT 2021 · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021· OSTI ID:1771810

;

; Boucher, Olivier;

; Haywood, Jim;

; Lurton, Thibaut; Nabat, Pierre;

;

Abstract. Solar geoengineering has been receiving increased attention in recent years as a potential temporary solution to offset global warming. One method of approximating global-scale solar geoengineering in climate models is via solar reduction experiments. Two generations of models in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) have now simulated offsetting a quadrupling of the CO2 concentration with solar reduction. This simulation is idealized and designed to elicit large responses in the models. Here, we show that energetics, temperature, and hydrological cycle changes in this experiment are statistically indistinguishable between the two ensembles. Of the variables analyzed here, the only major differences involve highly parameterized and uncertain processes, such as cloud forcing or terrestrial net primary productivity. We conclude that despite numerous structural differences and uncertainties in models over the past two generations of models, including an increase in climate sensitivity in the latest generation of models, the models are consistent in their aggregate climate response to global solar dimming.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE; National Science Foundation (NSF); National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); German Research Foundation (DFG)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830; CBET-1931641; AGS-1617844; AGS-2017113; ANR-11-IDEX-0004-17-EURE-0006; 2016-A0030107732; 2017-R0040110492; 2018-R0040110492; 820829

OSTI ID:: 1771810

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1787489

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-160572

Journal Information:: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online), Journal Name: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online) Vol. 21 Journal Issue: 6; ISSN 1680-7324

Publisher:: Copernicus GmbHCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: Germany

Language:: English

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