Calibrating Simple Climate Models to Individual Earth System Models: Lessons Learned From Calibrating Hector
Simple climate models (SCMs) are computationally efficient and capable of emulating global mean output of more complex Earth system models (ESMs). In doing so, SCMs can play a critical role in climate research as stand-ins for the computationally more ex- pensive models, especially in studies involving low resolution, computationally efficient climate data. Here we use Hector v2.0 to emulate the multi-forcing historical and RCP scenario output for 31 concentration and seven emission driven ESMs. When calibrat- ing Hector, sufficient comparison data must be used to constrain the model, otherwise climate and/or carbon parameters affecting physically related processes may be able to tradeoff with one another, making it impossible successfully calibrate Hector to individ- ual ESMs. Ultimately we were able to design two successful calibration protocols, one for concentration-driven Hector and another for emissions-driven Hector. These findings are relevant to other SCM calibration exercises including Bayesian approaches, where insufficient comparison data could have subtle impacts on the joint marginal probabil- ity density. Plain Language summary We calibrated a Simple Climate Model (SCM), Hector, to efficiently reproduce or emulate the output of more complex climate models. Using SCMs as emulators is a com- mon practice in the climate science and climate-economic research communities and are often central in international reports, such as the IPCC assessment reports. In order to use Hector as a satisfactory emulator we found that Hector must be constrained with multiple output variables to produce calibration fits that rely on physically reasonable parameter values.
- Research Organization:
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- Grant/Contract Number:
- DE‐AC05‐76RL01830; AC05-76RL01830; CBET-1931641
- OSTI ID:
- 1703011
- Alternate ID(s):
- OSTI ID: 1706096; OSTI ID: 1786699
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-148567; e2019EA000980
- Journal Information:
- Earth and Space Science, Journal Name: Earth and Space Science Vol. 7 Journal Issue: 11; ISSN 2333-5084
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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