Evaluating the WFIP2 updates to the HRRR model using scanning Doppler lidar measurements in the complex terrain of the Columbia River Basin

Journal Article · Wed Jul 01 00:00:00 EDT 2020 · Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0009138· OSTI ID:1673323

Pichugina, Yelena L. ^[1]; Banta, Robert M. ^[2]; Brewer, Alan ^[3]; Bianco, L. ^[4]; Draxl, Caroline ^[5]; Kenyon, Jaymes ^[6]; Lundquist, Julie K. ^[7]; Olson, J.  ^[4]; Turner, D D. ^[6]; Wharton, Sonia ^[8]; Wilczak, J. M. ^[9]; Baidar, Sunil ^[10]; Berg, Larry K.  ^[11]; Fernando, H. J. S. ^[12]; McCarty, Brandi ^[13]; Rai, Raj K. ^[11]; Roberts, Billy ^[14]; Sharp, Justin ^[15]; Shaw, William J.  ^[11]; Stoelinga, Mark ^[16] ; Worsnop, Rochelle P. ^[17]

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1. Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), Boulder, CO
2. NOAA Environmental Technology Laboratory
3. NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO, United States
4. University of Colorado
5. NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY
6. NOAA
7. National Renewable Energy Laboratory
8. Lawrence Livermore National Lab
9. NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO
10. University of Colorado at Boulder
11. BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)
12. Arizona State University
13. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
14. National Renewable Energy Lab
15. Sharply Focused
16. Vaisala, Inc., Seattle, WA
17. UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO AT BOULDER

The wind-energy (WE) industry relies on numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecast models as foundational or base models for many purposes, including wind-resource assessment and wind-power forecasting. During the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) in the Columbia River Basin of Oregon and Washington, a significant effort was made to improve NWP forecasts through focused model development, to include experimental refinements to the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model physics and horizontal grid spacing. In this study, the performance of an experimental version of HRRR that includes these refinements is tested against a control version, which corresponds to that of the operational HRRR run by NOAA/NCEP at the outset of WFIP2. The effects of horizontal grid resolution were also tested by comparing wind forecasts from the HRRR (with 3-km grid spacing) with those from a finer-resolution HRRR nest with 750-m grid spacing. Model forecasts are validated against accurate wind-profile measurements by three scanning, pulsed Doppler lidars at sites separated by a total distance of 71 km. Model skill, and improvements in model skill, attributable to physics refinements and improved horizontal grid resolution varied by season, by site, and during periods of atmospheric phenomena relevant to WE. In general, model errors were the largest below 150 m AGL. Experimental HRRR refinements tended to reduce the mean absolute error (MAE) and other error metrics for many conditions, but degradation in skill (increased MAE) was noted below 150 m AGL at the two lowest-elevation sites at night. Finer resolution was found to produce the most significant reductions in the error metrics.

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 1673323
• Report Number(s): PNNL-SA-154501
• Journal Information: Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy, Vol. 12, Issue 4
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English