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Title: Could a future “Grand Solar Minimum” like the Maunder Minimum stop global warming?

Journal Article · · Geophysical Research Letters
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50361· OSTI ID:1564928
 [1];  [2];  [1]
  1. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
  2. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), Melbourne (Australia)
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A future Maunder Minimum type grand solar minimum, with total solar irradiance reduced by 0.25% over a 50 year period from 2020 to 2070, is imposed in a future climate change scenario experiment (RCP4.5) using, for the first time, a global coupled climate model that includes ozone chemistry and resolved stratospheric dynamics (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model). This model has been shown to simulate two amplifying mechanisms that produce regional signals of decadal climate variability comparable to observations, and thus is considered a credible tool to simulate the Sun's effects on Earth's climate. After the initial decrease of solar radiation in 2020, globally averaged surface air temperature cools relative to the reference simulation by up to several tenths of a degree Centigrade. By the end of the grand solar minimum in 2070, the warming nearly catches up to the reference simulation. Thus, a future grand solar minimum could slow down but not stop global warming.

Research Organization:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF); Univ. of California, Oakland, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC02-05CH11231
OSTI ID:
1564928
Journal Information:
Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 9; ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 32 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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Cited By (12)

A regime shift in the Sun-Climate connection with the end of the Medieval Climate Anomaly journal September 2017
500-year climate cycles stacking of recent centennial warming documented in an East Asian pollen record journal January 2014
What is the solar influence on climate? Overview of activities during CAWSES-II journal November 2014
Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature journal December 2013
Medieval Climate in the Eastern Mediterranean: Instability and Evidence of Solar Forcing journal January 2019
Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate journal January 2018
Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2) journal January 2017
Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2) text January 2017
Medieval Climate in the Eastern Mediterranean: Instability and Evidence of Solar Forcing text January 2019
Assessing "Dangerous Climate Change": Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature text January 2013
Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate text January 2018
Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate text January 2018

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