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Title: A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts

Journal Article · · Reviews of Geophysics (1985)
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000644· OSTI ID:1560164
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [4]; ORCiD logo [5]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [6]; ORCiD logo [7]
  1. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Princeton NJ USA
  2. National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of MeteorologyUniversity of Reading Reading UK
  3. Climate and Global Dynamics LaboratoryNational Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA
  4. Physical Oceanography DepartmentWoods Hole Oceanographic Institution Woods Hole MA USA
  5. School of Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography CentreUniversity of Southampton Southampton UK
  6. School of Oceanography and Department of Atmospheric SciencesUniversity of Washington Seattle WA USA
  7. Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. Lexington MA USA

By synthesizing recent studies employing a wide range of approaches (modern observations, paleo reconstructions, and climate model simulations), this paper provides a comprehensive review of the linkage between multidecadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and associated climate impacts. There is strong observational and modeling evidence that multidecadal AMOC variability is a crucial driver of the observed AMV and associated climate impacts and an important source of enhanced decadal predictability and prediction skill. The AMOC-AMV linkage is consistent with observed key elements of AMV. Furthermore, this synthesis also points to a leading role of the AMOC in a range of AMV-related climate phenomena having enormous societal and economic implications, for example, Intertropical Convergence Zone shifts; Sahel and Indian monsoons; Atlantic hurricanes; El Niño–Southern Oscillation; Pacific Decadal Variability; North Atlantic Oscillation; climate over Europe, North America, and Asia; Arctic sea ice and surface air temperature; and hemispheric-scale surface temperature. Paleoclimate evidence indicates that a similar linkage between multidecadal AMOC variability and AMV and many associated climate impacts may also have existed in the preindustrial era, that AMV has enhanced multidecadal power significantly above a red noise background, and that AMV is not primarily driven by external forcing. The role of the AMOC in AMV and associated climate impacts has been underestimated in most state-of-the-art climate models, posing significant challenges but also great opportunities for substantial future improvements in understanding and predicting AMV and associated climate impacts.

Research Organization:
Woods Hole Oceanographic Inst., Woods Hole, MA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Grant/Contract Number:
SC0019492
OSTI ID:
1560164
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1560171; OSTI ID: 1613250
Journal Information:
Reviews of Geophysics (1985), Journal Name: Reviews of Geophysics (1985) Vol. 57 Journal Issue: 2; ISSN 8755-1209
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 256 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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Decadal Trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional Temperatures and Precipitation journal August 1995
A global perspective on CMIP5 climate model biases journal February 2014
Multidecadal variability and climate shift in the North Atlantic Ocean: Decadal Variability of North Atlantic journal May 2017
North Atlantic climate model bias influence on multiyear predictability journal January 2018
Observations, inferences, and mechanisms of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A review journal January 2016
North Atlantic Ocean control on surface heat flux on multidecadal timescales journal July 2013
A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate journal January 2005
Seasonal response of Asian monsoonal climate to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation journal January 2009
Silver hake tracks changes in Northwest Atlantic circulation journal August 2011
Western tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation journal July 2017
On the lack of stratospheric dynamical variability in low-top versions of the CMIP5 models: STRATOSPHERE IN CMIP5 MODELS journal March 2013