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Title: Transient dynamics of terrestrial carbon storage: mathematical foundation and its applications

Journal Article · · Biogeosciences (Online)

Terrestrial ecosystems have absorbed roughly 30 % of anthropogenic CO2 emissions over the past decades, but it is unclear whether this carbon (C) sink will endure into the future. Despite extensive modeling and experimental and observational studies, what fundamentally determines transient dynamics of terrestrial C storage under global change is still not very clear. Here we develop a new framework for understanding transient dynamics of terrestrial C storage through mathematical analysis and numerical experiments. Our analysis indicates that the ultimate force driving ecosystem C storage change is the C storage capacity, which is jointly determined by ecosystem C input (e.g., net primary production, NPP) and residence time. Since both C input and residence time vary with time, the C storage capacity is time-dependent and acts as a moving attractor that actual C storage chases. The rate of change in C storage is proportional to the C storage potential, which is the difference between the current storage and the storage capacity. The C storage capacity represents instantaneous responses of the land C cycle to external forcing, whereas the C storage potential represents the internal capability of the land C cycle to influence the C change trajectory in the next time step. The influence happens through redistribution of net C pool changes in a network of pools with different residence times. Moreover, this and our other studies have demonstrated that one matrix equation can replicate simulations of most land C cycle models (i.e., physical emulators). As a result, simulation outputs of those models can be placed into a three-dimensional (3-D) parameter space to measure their differences. The latter can be decomposed into traceable components to track the origins of model uncertainty. In addition, the physical emulators make data assimilation computationally feasible so that both C flux- and pool-related datasets can be used to better constrain model predictions of land C sequestration. Overall, this new mathematical framework offers new approaches to understanding, evaluating, diagnosing, and improving land C cycle models.

Research Organization:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE
DOE Contract Number:
AC05-00OR22725
OSTI ID:
1394454
Journal Information:
Biogeosciences (Online), Vol. 14, Issue 1; ISSN 1726-4189
Publisher:
European Geosciences Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Cited By (14)

A Large Committed Long-Term Sink of Carbon due to Vegetation Dynamics journal October 2018
Soil Organic Carbon Stabilization in the Three Subtropical Forests: Importance of Clay and Metal Oxides journal October 2019
Greenhouse Gas Concentration and Volcanic Eruptions Controlled the Variability of Terrestrial Carbon Uptake Over the Last Millennium journal June 2019
Limits to growth of forest biomass carbon sink under climate change journal July 2018
Approaching the potential of model-data comparisons of global land carbon storage journal March 2019
Evaluating changes of biomass in global vegetation models: the role of turnover fluctuations and ENSO events journal June 2018
Evaluation of simulated soil carbon dynamics in Arctic-Boreal ecosystems journal February 2020
Divergence in land surface modeling: linking spread to structure journal October 2019
Matrix approach to land carbon cycle modeling: A case study with the Community Land Model journal November 2017
Biotic responses buffer warming-induced soil organic carbon loss in Arctic tundra journal June 2018
Maximum carbon uptake rate dominates the interannual variability of global net ecosystem exchange journal July 2019
Ages and transit times as important diagnostics of model performance for predicting carbon dynamics in terrestrial vegetation models journal January 2018
A Large Committed Long-Term Sink of Carbon due to Vegetation Dynamics text January 2018
Ages and transit times as important diagnostics of model performance for predicting carbon dynamics in terrestrial vegetation models posted_content August 2017

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