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Title: Global sensitivity analysis, probabilistic calibration, and predictive assessment for the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon model

Journal Article · · Geoscientific Model Development (Online)
 [1];  [2];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [3];  [2]
  1. Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
  2. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  3. Univ. of Edinburgh, Scotland (United Kingdom)
+ Show Author Affiliations

In this paper we propose a probabilistic framework for an uncertainty quantification (UQ) study of a carbon cycle model and focus on the comparison between steady-state and transient simulation setups. A global sensitivity analysis (GSA) study indicates the parameters and parameter couplings that are important at different times of the year for quantities of interest (QoIs) obtained with the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model. We then employ a Bayesian approach and a statistical model error term to calibrate the parameters of DALEC using net ecosystem exchange (NEE) observations at the Harvard Forest site. The calibration results are employed in the second part of the paper to assess the predictive skill of the model via posterior predictive checks.

Research Organization:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-00OR22725
OSTI ID:
1335322
Journal Information:
Geoscientific Model Development (Online), Vol. 8, Issue 7; ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher:
European Geosciences UnionCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 21 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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Cited By (7)

Shifts in national land use and food production in Great Britain after a climate tipping point journal January 2020
Assessing the ecological vulnerability of the upper reaches of the Minjiang River journal July 2017
Applying a Global Sensitivity Analysis Workflow to Improve the Computational Efficiencies in Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling journal June 2018
Evaluation and uncertainty analysis of regional-scale CLM4.5 net carbon flux estimates journal January 2018
On the effect of model parameters on forecast objects journal January 2018
What should we do when a model crashes? Recommendations for global sensitivity analysis of Earth and environmental systems models journal January 2019
On the Effect of Model Parameters on Forecast Objects journal November 2017

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