The RedHook Method: Applying decision trees and estimated monetary values to NEPA compliance
- Mangi Environmental Group, Inc., Falls Church, VA (United States)
The path to NEPA compliance is often not clear. For a project with potentially significant impacts, a proponent may choose to prepare an EIS or to prepare an EA with the hope that it can support a mitigated FNSI. The cost and time requirements of these two approaches differ. The RedHook Method was created as a tool to help determine the least cost, least risk, and/or least time approach to NEPA compliance. This paper describes an innovative methodology and illustrates its applicability through a case study. Traditionally, decision trees and estimated monetary values (EMVs) are used to assist managers to make decisions under risk and/or uncertainty, usually to maximize profit. The decisionmaker creates a simple model that illustrates various scenarios, assigns appropriate probabilities and monetary values to each scenario, and calculates the EMV for each decision node. At each decision node, the manager chooses the scenario with the highest EMV. This paper demonstrates that environmental managers can use decision trees and EMVs to minimize cost, time, and/or risk. By considering these three criteria in a decision tree (the Redhook Method), project proponents can make informed decisions as to when to conduct an EA or to begin the EIS process. As contractors for a federal agency, the authors had to advise their client as to the optimal NEPA compliance strategy for a proposed project. After completing a preliminary draft EA, the authors discovered many potential, marginally significant impacts, no {open_quotes}show-stoppers,{close_quotes} and large public controversy. Estimating the probability of litigation and other challenges and the monetary cost and delay that these could cause, the RedHook Method predicted the least cost approach. To much surprise, the model suggested that conducting an EIS would be most economical. The model suggested that the proponent`s willingness to commit to additional mitigation would not alter the predicted least cost approach.
- Research Organization:
- National Association of Environmental Professionals, Washington, DC (United States)
- OSTI ID:
- 126001
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-9506115-; TRN: 95:006735-0096
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: 20. National Association of Environmental Professionals annual conference and exposition: environmental challenges - the next twenty years, Washington, DC (United States), 10-13 Jun 1995; Other Information: PBD: 1995; Related Information: Is Part Of Environmental challenges: The next 20 years. Proceedings; PB: 932 p.
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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