An Example Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis for Reactive Transport at the Horonobe Site for Performance Assessment Calculations.
- Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM
Given pre-existing Groundwater Modeling System (GMS) models of the Horonobe Underground Research Laboratory (URL) at both the regional and site scales, this work performs an example uncertainty analysis for performance assessment (PA) applications. After a general overview of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques, the existing GMS site-scale model is converted to a PA model of the steady-state conditions expected after URL closure. This is done to examine the impact of uncertainty in site-specific data in conjunction with conceptual model uncertainty regarding the location of the Oomagari Fault. A heterogeneous stochastic model is developed and corresponding flow fields and particle tracks are calculated. In addition, a quantitative analysis of the ratio of dispersive to advective forces, the F-ratio, is performed for stochastic realizations of each conceptual model. Finally, a one-dimensional transport abstraction is modeled based on the particle path lengths and the materials through which each particle passes to yield breakthrough curves at the model boundary. All analyses indicate that accurate characterization of the Oomagari Fault with respect to both location and hydraulic conductivity is critical to PA calculations. This work defines and outlines typical uncertainty and sensitivity analysis procedures and demonstrates them with example PA calculations relevant to the Horonobe URL. Acknowledgement: This project was funded by Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute (JNC). This work was conducted jointly between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and JNC under a joint JNC/U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) work agreement. Performance assessment calculations were conducted and analyzed at SNL based on a preliminary model by Kashima, Quintessa, and JNC and include significant input from JNC to make sure the results are relevant for the Japanese nuclear waste program.
- Research Organization:
- Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM; Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), Albuquerque, NM, and Livermore, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
- DOE Contract Number:
- DE-AC04-94AL85000
- OSTI ID:
- 1143330
- Report Number(s):
- SAND2005-5174; 526350
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
Feature Detection, Characterization and Confirmation Methodology: Final Report
Development of Hydrologic Characterization Technology of Fault Zones