Model documentation natural gas transmission and distribution model (NGTDM) of the national energy modeling system. Volume II: Model developer`s report
To partially fulfill the requirements for {open_quotes}Model Acceptance{close_quotes} as stipulated in EIA Standard 91-01-01 (effective February 3, 1991), the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has conducted tests of the Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) for the specific purpose of validating the forecasting model. This volume of the model documentation presents the results of {open_quotes}one-at-a-time{close_quotes} sensitivity tests conducted in support of this validation effort. The test results are presented in the following forms: (1) Tables of important model outputs for the years 2000 and 2010 are presented with respect to change in each input from the reference case; (2) Tables of percent changes from base case results for the years 2000 and 2010 are presented for important model outputs; (3) Tables of conditional sensitivities (percent change in output/percent change in input) for the years 2000 and 2010 are presented for important model outputs; (4) Finally, graphs presenting the percent change from base case results for each year of the forecast period are presented for selected key outputs. To conduct the sensitivity tests, two main assumptions are made in order to test the performance characteristics of the model itself and facilitate the understanding of the effects of the changes in the key input variables to the model on the selected key output variables: (1) responses to the amount demanded do not occur since there are no feedbacks of inputs from other NEMS models in the stand-alone NGTDM run. (2) All the export and import quantities from and to Canada and Mexico, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports and exports are held fixed (i.e., there are no changes in imports and exports between the reference case and the sensitivity cases) throughout the forecast period.
- Research Organization:
- USDOE Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States). Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
- OSTI ID:
- 10109687
- Report Number(s):
- DOE/EIA-M062/2; ON: DE95006079; NC: NONE; TRN: 95:001289
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: PBD: 3 Jan 1995
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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